How certain can we be that they were telling the truth?

At Duke University, two students had received A’s in chemistry all semester. But on the night before the final exam, they were partying in another state and didn’t get back to Duke until it was over. Their excuse to the professor was that they had a flat tire, and they asked if they could take a make-up test. The professor agreed, wrote out a test, and sent the two to separate rooms to take it. The first question (on one side of the paper) was worth five points. Then they flipped the paper over and found the second question, worth 95 points: “which tire was it?” What was the probability that both students would say the same thing?

If the students were lying, the correct probability of their choosing the same answer is 1 in 4. That is, there is a whopping 25% probability that we would get away with chance alone. 


Full Disclaimer: I am not a financial planner. The views expressed in this post are all mine and they may or may not suit your needs. Please do you own due diligence. I do not make money on any of the products suggested in this post. 

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